IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF NIGERIA (1991-2023).

Student: Temitope Gladys Arohunmolase
Supervisor: Dr Adesola Ibironke
HOD: Dr T P Fadiran
Department of Economics
Social sciences
Adekunle Ajasin University, Akungba-Akoko, Ondo State

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of international trade on economic growth in Nigeria, focusing on the role of exports, imports, foreign direct investment (FDI), and trade openness. The research explores how these trade-related variables influence Nigeria’s economic performance, particularly in the context of the country’s reliance on oil exports. By employing econometric techniques such as the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method and the Granger Causality Test, this study examines the short-run and long-run effects of international trade on Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 1980 to 2020. The results reveal that while exports, particularly oil exports, have a significant positive impact on economic growth, imports also play a crucial role by providing access to capital goods and technology that support industrialization and development. However, the findings suggest that Nigeria’s over- dependence on oil exports exposes the economy to external shocks, indicating the need for diversification into non-oil sectors. Diagnostic tests, including the Ramsey RESET Test and the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF), were conducted to ensure model robustness and check for issues such as multicollinearity and model specification errors. The study concludes that while international trade is a critical driver of Nigeria’s economic growth, policies that promote export diversification and optimize the benefits of imports are essential for sustainable long- term development.

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