MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF THE CONTROL MEASURES IN THE SPREAD OF POLIO
Abstract
ABSTRACT
This research presents a simplified deterministic SEIV (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Vaccinated) mathematical model to analyse the impact of vaccination on poliomyelitis transmission. The model focuses on vaccination as the sole intervention, deriving the disease-free equilibrium and basic reproduction number R₀=40. Stability analysis confirms the equilibrium's instability without vaccination, while numerical simulations across varying rates (ρ=0.01 to 0.10) demonstrate reduced outbreak peaks (up to 9%) and faster elimination with higher coverage. Results underscore vaccination's potential for eradication, offering an accessible framework for policy and education. Recommendations include enhancing routine immunization and integrating modelling in public health strategies.
Full-Text Access Notice
In accordance with the NERD Policy on promoting peer-reviewed publication, public access to the full text of a project, thesis or dissertation is restricted for three years, allowing the author and supervisors sufficient time to pursue peer-reviewed publication.
During this period, researchers with legitimate academic or research purposes may request authorisation directly from the author to enable NERD to release the indexed full texts of the work using the form below.