BLUE ECONOMY, REVENUE GENERATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

ABSTRACT This study examines the impact of Blue Economy revenue generation on economic growth in Nigeria covering the period 1986–2024. The motivation for this research stems from Nigeria’s persistent overdependence on oil revenue and the urgent need to explore alternative, sustainable sources of growth. Specifically, the study investigates the contributions of key Blue Economy sectors, fisheries, water transportation, and tax revenues from maritime activities, to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while also examining the roles of inflation and interest rates as macroeconomic control variables. Secondary data were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and the World Development Indicators (WDI). The study employed descriptive statistics, trend analysis, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests, and the Bounds co-integration test. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was adopted to estimate both short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. The results revealed that fishing revenue had a significant positive effect on GDP in the short run, indicating that increased productivity in fisheries stimulates growth, though the effect was not sustained in the long run. Water transportation revenue exhibited a significant negative long-run effect on GDP, implying inefficiencies and structural bottlenecks in the sector. Total tax revenue showed a significant positive effect on GDP in the long run, confirming the growth-enhancing role of domestic revenue mobilization. Furthermore, inflation had a positive short-run but negative long-run impact on GDP, suggesting that moderate inflation can promote growth, while persistently high inflation undermines it. Interest rate negatively affected GDP in the short run, reflecting its dampening effect on investment and borrowing. The study concludes that the Blue Economy represents a viable pathway for Nigeria’s economic diversification and sustainable growth if its potentials are effectively harnessed. It recommends that government should strengthen institutional frameworks and infrastructure in fisheries and maritime transport, improve tax administration to enhance revenue mobilization, and maintain moderate inflation and investment-friendly interest rates. Properly harnessed, the Blue Economy can serve as a catalyst for inclusive growth, job creation, and long-term economic transformation in Nigeria.