GEOSPATIAL ANALYSES OF URBAN EXPANSION WITHIN JOS METROPOLIS, NIGERIA
Abstract
ABSTRACT
Rapid and largely unplanned urban growth is transforming Nigerian cities, with Jos Metropolis experiencing pronounced land-use change. This study aimed to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of urban expansion in Jos between 2010 and 2025 and to recommend strategies for sustainable development. The specific objectives were to: (i) map the spatial extent and annual rate of expansion, (ii) quantify land-use transitions, (iii) evaluate the effects of urbanisation on environmental sustainability, and (iv) propose policy measures for improved planning and management. A mixed-methods design integrated multi-temporal remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) analysis with field surveys. Landsat and Sentinel imagery for 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025 were classified using a supervised maximum-likelihood algorithm. Post-classification change detection quantified land-use/land-cover (LULC) transitions. Structured questionnaires administered to residents and property developers provided socio-economic and perceptual data to complement the spatial analysis. Results show that built-up land expanded from 125.45 km² in 2015 to 208.16 km² in 2025, an average annual increase of about 5.5 %. Farmland declined by ≈109 km², vegetation by ≈55 km², and open space by ≈132 km², while water bodies contracted slightly by 2 km². Expansion followed linear growth along major transport corridors (2010–2015) and later shifted to clustered and leap-frog patterns (2015–2025). Survey responses identified population growth (40 %) and rural–urban migration (30 %) as principal drivers, with high land prices and weak regulatory enforcement intensifying unplanned development. Respondents reported both benefits improved access to services and adverse effects including congestion, flooding, higher living costs, and loss of green space.The study demonstrates the value of geospatial monitoring for evidence-based planning and recommends strengthened land-use governance, protection of agricultural zones, continuous GIS tracking, and participatory planning to achieve sustainable urban development in Jos Metropolis.
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