IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDIS) ON NIGERIA’S REAL SECTOR
Abstract
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background to the study
The role of Foreign Direct Investment on economic growth has been vigorously
debated in the literature. Some studies are of the view that Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) contributes positively to the growth of the economy (Adegbite
and Ayadi, 2011; Koojaroenprasit, 2012; Onu, 2012; Adeleke, Olowe and Fasesin,
2014; John, 2016; and Ali and Hussain, 2017), while some are of the view that FDI
only contributes small and it is not significant (Akinlo, 2004; Louzi and Abadi,
2011). However, the attributes of FDI in any economy of the world cannot be over-
emphasized. FDI refers to an investment made by an investor either corporate
bodies or individuals in a country other than the domestic country of origin of the
investor in creating business or buying an asset in the country. John, (2016) posits
that foreign direct investment is seen as a process of moving technology and
capital from a nation either developed or developing countries to another nation.
Farrell, (2018) posits that foreign direct investment refers to the package of
technology, capital, management, and entrepreneurship that firm uses to operate
and provide goods and services in a foreign market. In Africa, Nigeria is the third
host economy for FDI, behind Egypt and Ethiopia. Some of the investing countries
in Nigeria are the USA, United Kingdom, China, the Netherlands and France
(UNCTAD, 2018). Nigeria FDI flows in 2017 dropped by 21% to reach 3.5 billion
USD which could be as a result of political instability, lack of transparency
widespread corruption and poor quality of infrastructure (UNCTAD, 2018).
However, this study tends to re-examine the impact of foreign direct investment on
economic growth in Nigeria.
The World Investment Report 2008 revealed that the World Foreign Direct
Investment has been used all along, which averaged US 492.6 billion between
1990 and 2000 rose to US$1.8 trillion in 2007. Despite that, only a few countries
have been successful in attracting significant FDI inflows. Indeed, Africa as a
whole – sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in particular – has not particularly benefited so
much from the FDI boom. FDI inflows into Africa increased from an annual
average of about US$6.9 billion between 1990 and 2000 to US$36.6 billion over
the period of 2004 and 2007. In percentage terms, the share of Africa in the global
FDI was about 6% in 1990, later dropped precipitously to 3 in 2007 (UNCTAD,
2008). FDI inflows to sub-Saharan African was US$ 29 billion in 2010 and stood
at $37 billion in 2011, close to the historic peak of 2008 (UNCTAD, 2012).Nigeria
as a country, given her natural resource base and large market size, qualifies to be a
major recipient of FDI in Africa and indeed is one of the top three leading African
countries that consistently received FDI in the past decade. However, the level of
FDI attracted is inadequate compared with the resource base and potential need.
Nigeria’s share of FDI inflow to Africa averaged around 24.68% between 1976 and
2010. For instance, available statistics showed that Nigeria’s share of FDI inflows
to Africa fell from 35.2% in 1990 to 13.6% in 2000 then rose to 16.3% in 2005 and
stood at 14.0% in 2010.The pattern of movement in FDI inflow to Nigeria is
suggestive of being affected basically by other qualitative and not quantitative
factors of which uncertainty is at its centre point.
The attractiveness and actual disbursement of FDI into a given country depends on
many factors, including political and economic conditions both in the host country
and in the rest of the world. Uncertainty may emanate from volatility in
macroeconomic variables like exchange rates, resource prices, interest rates, and
changes in policies and rules of business transactions.
The relevance of FDI cannot be overemphasized. Its significant influence on the
provision of new technologies, products, management skills and competitive
business environment, overtime has been a strong impetus for economic growth.
Many countries of the world, especially emerging economies favor policies that
encourages the inflow of FDI because of it positive spillover associated with the
provision of funds and expertise that could help smaller companies to expand and
increase international sales and transfer of technology thus, forming new varieties
of capital input (i.e. flow of services available for production from the stock of
capital goods e.g. equipment, structures, inventories etc.) that cannot be achieved
through financial investments or trade in goods and services alone.
Nigeria is one of the economies with great demand for goods and services and has
attracted many FDI over the years since the discovery of crude oil. According to
the World Bank, from 1970 to 1979, Nigeria recorded an average ratio of FDI net
inflow of about 1.579 to GDP while from 1980 to 1989, the average ratio of FDI
net inflow to GDP recorded stood at 1.947. Thus, in 1994 and 1993, the country
made a remarkable record of 8.28 and 6.3 respectively. Since 1993 and 1994, the
record was not an issue to contend with. To the greatest of dismay, from 1995 to
2010, FDI, net inflow as % of GDP in Nigeria has not gone beyond 4.0 except in
1996, 1997, 2005 and 2009 the country made a record of 4.51, 4.25, 4.44 and 5.08
respectively. World Bank research contained in global development finance (2008)
shows that Thailand attracted $9.6 billion in 2007 while Nigeria attracted about
$6.03 billion. Also, CBN (2010) annual report also indicated that total FDI inflow
into the Nigerian in 2010 was about $5.99 billion. The breakdown of the amount
according to the report shows that FDI portion was just 12.2 percent or $668
million. This represents a 0.51 percent drop from $2.31 billion in 2019. In light of
the above, many Nigerians are lost in guesses of the likely causes of the
insignificant inflow of FDI into the country. This has been a source of worry to
both policy makers and government authorities. Further, Asiedu, (2019) asserted
that the level of FDI attracted by Nigeria is indifferent compared with the resource
based and potential need, taken into cognizance of the fact that Nigeria is the 8th
ranked most populous nation and 32nd biggest economy in the world (CIA World
fact book) with the endowment to do better than its counterpart South Africa as the
Africa biggest economy following the statement of investment giant Morgan
Stanley.
1.2 Statement of Problem
The efforts of most countries in Africa to attract FDI have been futile. This is in
spite of the perceived and obvious need for FDI in the continent. The development
is disturbing, sending very little hope of economic development and growth for
these countries. Nigeria as a nation has not been able to fully tap from her
resources. Recent report has shown that Nigeria due to her over-dependency on oil
is fast losing its leading role in terms of attracting FDI in Africa to Egypt and
South Africa, which were successful in attracting FDI in diverse sectors of their
economies (UNCTAD, 2009). Nigeria’s poor FDI record can be further adduced
due to the following reasons: Uncertainty, Political Instability, Macroeconomic
Instability, Lack of policy transparency, inhospitable regulatory environment, GDP
growth and market size and Poor infrastructure.
Furthermore poor infrastructure reduces the productivity of investments thereby
discouraging inflows. Asiedu (2002) and Morrisset (2000) provide evidence that
good infrastructure has a positive impact on FDI flows to Africa. However, due to
the above in adequacies, the researcher wants to find out the impact of FDI on the
real sector in Nigeria.
1.3 Objectives of the Study
The broad objective of the study is to examine the impact of FDI on Nigeria Real
Sector. The specific objectives are:
1. To examine the Impact of Trade Openness on Nigeria Real Sector, proxy by
Real Gross Domestic Product.
2. To evaluate the Impact of Gross Domestic Investment on Nigeria Real
Sector, proxy by Real Gross Domestic Product.
3. To Investigate the Impact of Exchange Rate on Nigeria Real Sector, proxy by
Real Gross Domestic Product.
4. To establish the Impact of Interest Rate on Nigeria Real Sector, proxy by
Real Gross Domestic Product.
1.4Research Question
To achieve the aim of this study, answers were sought for the following questions;
1. Does Trade Openness contribute to Nigeria Real Sector?
2. What is the effect of Gross Domestic Investment on Nigeria Real Sector?
3. Has there been a positive impact of Exchange Rate on Nigeria Real Sector?
4. Is there any impact Interest Rate has on Nigeria Real Sector?
1.5 Research Hypotheses
The hypothesis for this research will be stated in their null forms:
1. H01: There is no significant relationship between Trade Openness and
Nigeria’s Real Sector, proxy by Real Gross Domestic Product.
2. H02: Gross Domestic Investment has no significant impact on Nigeria’s Real
Sector, proxy by Real Gross Domestic Product.
3. H03: Exchange Rate has no Long run significant relationship on Nigeria’s
Real Sector which would be proxy by Real Gross Domestic Product.
4. H04: There is no significant relationship between Interest Rate and Nigeria’s
Real Sector, proxy by Real Gross Domestic Product.
1.6 Significance of the Study
The study is significant to stakeholders and participants in the economy as it
seeks to measure the impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Nigeria’s Real
Sector.
The study will add to the existing body of knowledge in this area of research, it
will shed light on the instrument of Foreign direct investment and how it is used
to attain its aim and objectives.
The Findings from this study will be of immense benefits in a number of ways
and to different groups of persons which include, Federal Government through
the Ministries of Trade, Investment, Foreign Affairs, The Central Bank of
Nigeria (CBN), Students and other researchers in related field.
1.7 Scope of the Study
The study will centre on the contribution that has been made to Nigeria Real
Sector by the way of Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), engulfing the
period from 1990-2020. Annual time series data will be engaged using RGDP
as a proxy for Nigeria’s Real Sector and other variables such as Trade Openness
(TO), Gross Domestic Investment (GDI), Exchange Rate (EXR) and Interest
Rate (INTR) in Nigeria will be tested.
1.8 Organization of the Study
This study is organized into five chapters. Chapter one which is the introduction
started by providing a background of the subject matter, the problems and
objectives follow. These are followed by hypotheses, rationale and scope of the
study as well as the organization of the chapters. Chapter two presents related
literature concerning conceptual literature, theoretical, and empirical literature.
Chapter three contained the research methodology, which consist of the sources
of data, model specification and methods of data analysis, while the results and
discussion are presented in chapter four. Chapter five contains the summary,
conclusions and recommendations of the study. They are followed by references
and Appendix.
1.9 Definition of the Terms
1. Abrupt: Brief to the point of rudeness; curt.
2. Bureaucratic: Relating to a system of government in which most of the
important decisions are taken by state officials rather than by elected
representatives.
3. Budget Deficit: This occurs when expenses exceed revenue and indicate the
financial health of a country. The government generally uses the term budget
deficit when referring to spending rather than businesses or individuals.
Accrued deficits form national debt.
4. Capital Investment: Is defined as a sum of cash acquired by a company to
pursue its objectives, such as continuing or growing operations. A capital
investment can be made via several sources including using cash on hand,
selling other assets, or raising capital through the issuance of debt or equity.
5. Conflicts: A serious disagreement or argument, typically a protracted one.
6. Corruption: The process by which a word or expression is changed from its
original state to one regarded as erroneous or debased.
7. Crude Oil: This means a mixture of hydrocarbons that exists in liquid phase
in natural underground reservoirs and remains liquid at atmospheric pressure
after passing through surface separating facilities.
8. Currency Crash: These are a sudden and drastic devaluation in a nation's
currency matched by volatile markets and a lack of faith in the nation's
economy. A currency crisis is sometimes predictable and is often sudden. It
may be precipitated by governments, investors, central banks, or any
combination of actors.
9. Deterrents: A thing that discourages or is intended to discourage someone
from doing something.
10. Disbursement: A payment, especially one made by a solicitor to a third
party and then claimed back from the client.
11. Economic Real Sector: The real sector is one of the major components of
the Nigeria economy. The sector is made up of the manufacturing and
service industries. These include housing, agriculture, manufacturing
industry, mining infrastructure and services.
12. Entrepreneurship: The activity of setting up a business or businesses,
taking on financial risks in the hope of profit.
13. Exchange Rate: Is the value of a country's currency vs. that of another
country or economic zone. Most exchange rates are free-floating and will
rise or fall based on supply and demand in the market.
14. Foreign Direct Investment: Is an investment in the form of a controlling
ownership in a business in one country by an entity based in another country.
It is thus distinguished from a foreign portfolio investment by a notion of
direct control.
15. Gross Domestic Investment: Is the measure of physical investment used in
computing GDP in the measurement of nations' economic activity. This is an
important component of GDP because it provides an indicator of the future
productive capacity of the economy.
16. Real Gross Domestic Product: Is the total monetary or market value of all
the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a
specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it
functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country's economic
health.
17. Infrastructure: The basic physical and organizational structures and
facilities (e.g. buildings, roads, and power supplies) needed for the operation
of a society or enterprise.
18. Inflows: The movement of a large number of people or things or a large
amount of money into a place.
19. International Sales Contract: Is an agreement under which goods shall be
delivered from the territory of one country to the territory of another country.
20. Inflation: A general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of
money.
21. Interest Rate: The proportion of a loan that is charged as interest to the
borrower, typically expressed as an annual percentage of the loan
outstanding.
22. Macroeconomics: The branch of economics concerned with large-scale or
general economic factors, such as interest rates and national productivity.
23. Management: The process of dealing with or controlling things or people.
24. Marketing Strategy: A plan of action designed to promote and sell a
product or service.
25. Political Instability: This can be defined in at least three ways. A first
approach is to define it as the propensity for regime or government change
26. Populous: Full of people; crowded or thickly populated. ... Containing
many people or inhabitants; having a large population
27. Power Supply: A device providing power to electronic equipment and
sometimes designated A, B, or C according to its function of heating
vacuum tube cathodes, causing a flow of electron current in plate circuits, or
applying a direct voltage in grid circuits.
28. Telecommunication: Communication over a distance by cable, telegraph,
telephone, or broadcasting.
29. Weak Governance: These “government failures” lead to broader failures in
political, economic and civic institutions that the OECD Investment
Committee refers to as “weak governance”
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CHAPTER TWO
2.0 Review of Related Literature
Preamble
Most countries strive to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) because of its
acknowledged advantages as a tool of economic growth. Africa in general and
Nigeria in particular joined the rest of the world in seeking FDI as evidenced by
the formation of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD), which
has the attraction of foreign investment to Africa as a major component (Ayanwale,
2007). The role of foreign direct investment in the development of Nigerian
economy cannot be over emphasized. Foreign direct investment provides capital
for investment; it enhances job creation and managerial skills, and possibly
technology transfer (Obida & Abu, 2010).
Foreign Direct Investment is considered an encouraging impetus for economic
growth by enhancing competitiveness through offering employment, transferring
sophisticated technologies, boosting productivity and promoting infrastructure.
FDI is seen as a way of filling the gap between available domestic supplies of
saving, government revenue, human capital skills and the desired level of resources
needed to achieve growth and development targets (Okonkwo, Egbunike & Udeh,
2015). FDI makes significant contributions to the host country's development
process especially through easing of the constraints of low levels of domestic
savings and investment as well as foreign exchange shortages. It increases the
gross domestic product and generates a stream of real incomes in the host country.
Nigeria is one of the economies with great demand for goods and services and has
attracted some FDI over the years. This is based on the need to maximize the
potential benefits derived from them; and to minimize the negative effects their
operations could impose on the country.
2.1 Conceptual Review
2.1.1Concept of Foreign Direct Investment
Foreign Direct Investment according to Mariloman (2003) described as investment
made to acquire a lasting management interest (usually at least 10% of voting
stock) and acquiring at least 10% of equity share in an enterprise operating in a
country other than the home country of the investor. Kumar (2007), described
Direct Foreign Investment (DFI) in several ways. First and most likely it may
involve parent enterprise injecting equity capital by purchasing shares in foreign
affiliates. Second, it may take the form of reinvesting the affiliate’s earning. Third,
it may entail short-or foreign investment as a share of Gross Domestic Product has
grown rapidly, becoming the largest source of capital moving from developed
nations to developing nations.
Foreign direct investment says Omankhanlen (2011) includes; external resources
including technology, managerial and marketing expertise and capital. All these
generate a considerable impact on host nation’s productive capabilities and the
success of government policies of stimulating the productive base of the economy
depend largely on her ability to control adequate amount of FDI comprising of
managerial, capital and technological resources to boast the existing production
capacity. Similarly, Mallampally and Sauvant (1999) describe it as investment by
multinational corporations in foreign countries in order to control assets and
manage production activities in those countries.
Foreign direct investment is an investment made by an individual or a company
(investor) in a country which is not the country of origin of the investor, in the
form of either establishing business or acquiring business assets in the country. FDI
is the extra resource a country needs in order to achieve economic growth. It is a
combination of technology, marketing, capital and management. It provides a firm
with new markets, marketing channels, easy admittance to new technology, skills,
product, financing and production facilities. Foreign direct investment can be
defined as a foreign investment that is a part or share of GDP which grows rapidly;
it is turning into the largest origin of capital moving from developed countries to
developing countries Kasimu Aminu (2020).
Foreign direct investment (FDI) is the defined “as an increase in the book value of
the net worth of investment in one country held by investors of another country
where the investments are under the managerial control of the investor” (Graham,
1995). To buttress the definition above, Todaro and Smith (2003) noted that most
FDI are in fact subsidiaries of Multinational Corporations (MNCs) such that the
investors are the parent organizations of firms. Thus, foreign direct investment
flows represent the expansion of the international activities of Multinational
Corporations.
2.1.2 Concept of Economic Growth
The concept of economic growth usually refers to the increase in the inflation-
adjusted market value of goods and services produced by an economy over a
period of time. It is measured as the percentage rate of increase in real GDP usually
in per capita terms. Growth usually is calculated in real terms i.e. inflation-adjusted
terms. Economic growth also means increased growth in the level of output
produced by a country over time and it crucially measures the economic
performance of a country.
Jhingan (2002) defines economic growth “as the process whereby the real per
capita income for a country increases over a long period of time”. He states that
economic growth is measured by increase in the amount of goods and services in
each successive time period. Thus, growth occurs when an economy’s productive
capacity increases which in turn is used to produce more goods and services.
Economic Growth according to Jhinghan (2003) is the quantitative sustained
increase in the countries per capital output or income accompanied by expansion in
its labor force, consumption, capital and volume of trade. Schumpeter (1946) refers
it as a gradual and steady change in the long run which is brought about by a
gradual increase in the rate of savings and population.
Samuelson (2006) sees economic growth as the expansion of a country’s potential
GDP or national output. He explains it further as when a nation’s productivity
frontier shifts outwards. From the above definitions we can infer that economic
growth is the process which leads to sustained increase in the national output over
a period of time. Kindleberger (1965) sees economic growth as increase in the
level of output without a change in institutional and technological arrangement.
Economic growth can be seen as a sustained increase in per capital national outputs
or net national product over a long period of time. It is also a quantitative increase
in the monetary values of goods and services produced in an economy within a
given year, Thabani and Wellington, (2018).
In the words of Zhattau (2013) economic growth is the basis of increase prosperity
and it comes from accumulation of more capital and innovations which lead to
technical progress, the idea similar to Solow (2002) growth model who sees
economic growth in terms of growth in total GDP due to increase in population,
technical progress and investment. Growth according to Classical Economist
signifies increase in the rate of investment. In other words, growth is a function of
share of profit in the national income. There exists a positive relationship between
higher rate of profit and higher rate of growth in the long run. Feldman and
Francis, (2003) as cited in Okeke, Mbonu and Ndubuisi, (2018) opined that,
economic development entails combined action and all-encompassing, long-term
investment. According to Okeke et al. (2018), economic development talks about
the critical conditions needed for the micro economic working of the economy.
Furthermore they stated that economic development is centered around
government and though it is undoubtedly feasible to have economic advances
without development in the immediate or near term, economic development
generates the environments that enable long-run economic growth, (Okeke et al,
2018). That the cardinal objective of economic development is employment
generation but for progress, what is important is the amount of jobs created in the
economy. Thus the focus of economic development is career advancement
opportunities, wages and working conditions. Dwivedi (2004) states that,
economic growth is a sustained increase in per capita national output or net
national product over a long period of time. It implies that the rate on increase in
total output must be greater than the rate of population growth. Another
quantification of economic growth is that national output should be composed of
such goods and services which satisfy the maximum want of the maximum number
of people. Economic growth can be determined by four important determinants
namely, human resources, national resources, capital formation and technological
development. Economic growth is the increase in the amount of the goods and
services produced by an economy over time. It is conventionally measured as the
percent rate of increase in real gross domestic product. Growth is usually
calculated in real terms, i.e. inflation-adjusted terms, in order to net out the effect
of inflation on the price of the goods and services produced. 'Economic growth' or
'economic growth theory' typically refers to growth of potential output, i.e.,
production at 'full employment,' which is caused by growth in aggregate demand or
observed output (Nzotta, 2007).
2.1.3 Concept of Exchange Rate
James Chen, (2020) defines the real exchange rate as the relative national price
levels between two economic with the corresponding nominal exchange rate being
an auxiliary to convert the unit of account such the two price levels are measured
in a single currency. Its subject is not the currency or exchange rate, but the relative
cost of living, between two economies. Exchange rates can be either fixed or
floating. Fixed exchange rates are decided by central Bank of a country where as
floating exchange rates are decided by the mechanism of market demand and
supply.
According to Bennett (2021) defines Exchange rate is the price of one currency in
terms of another currency. Exchange rates can be either fixed or floating. Fixed
exchange rates are decided by central banks of s country where as floating
Exchange rates are decided by the mechanism of market demand and supply.
According Jhingan (2001) in common language interest is a payment made by
borrower to the lender for the use of money and is expressed as a rate percent per
year. To him, in economics, interest is defined differently by different economists.
To Carver, „interest is the income which goes to the owner of capital”. To Marshal
“interest is the price paid for the use of capital in any market”. To Wicksell
“interest is a payment by the borrower of capital by virtue of its productivity, as
reward for his (the capitalists) abstinence.
2.1.4 Concept of Interest Rate
According to Jhingan (2001) interest rate play the following role in any economy:
I. Interest induces people to save from their incomes and provides capital for
productive uses.
II. It measures the opportunity cost of various productive channels and thus
helps allocation of saving among them.
III. It regulates the flow of investible funds and thereby influences the growth
and direction of business and industrial activity
IV. It has been widely recognized as a powerful weapon to be used by the
monetary authorities to control inflation, deflation, capital movement etc.
2.1.5 Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: The Nexus
A nation that desires economic growth must save and invest a reasonable
proportion of its national income. But developing countries are by definition poor
and characterized by low savings and investment rates which in turn, have
contributed to their remaining poor. An inflow of foreign resources is expected to
supplement the domestic resources and assist in enhancing the growth of the
economy. Foreign Direct Investment is considered as an invaluable tool for
achieving economic growth in developing countries. The United Nations defined
foreign direct investment (FDI) as investment in enterprise located in one country
but “effectively controlled” by residents of another country (UNCTAD, 2009).
Foreign direct investment is perceived to have a positive impact on economic
growth of a host country through various direct and indirect channels. It augments
domestic investment, which is crucial to the attainment of sustained growth and
development (Olokoyo, 2012).
Borensztein et al. (1998) see FDI as an important vehicle for the transfer of
technology, contributing to growth in larger measure than domestic investment.
Bengos and Sanchez Robles (2003) assert that even though FDI is positively
correlated with economic growth, host countries require minimum human capital,
economic stability and liberalized markets in order to benefit from long-term FDI
inflows. Foreign Direct Investment and economic growth nexus has spurred
volumes of empirical studies on both developed and developing countries. This
nexus has been studied by explaining the determinants of both growth and FDI, the
role of Trans-National Companies (TNCs) in host countries, and the direction of
causality between the two variables.
There is an agreement which states that FDI has serve as an advantage to local
firms by increasing growth which leads to productivity and efficiency. Developed
nations have agreed that productivity has been the key to domestic firms. The
FDI’s importance in export promotion is said to be debatable and it relies on it
solely for the purpose of investment. The main agreement is that FDI spill over
depends on the capacity of the host country in order to absorb the type of
investment nature and also foreign technology. The relationship between economic
growth and FDI is tagged conditional depending on the country it is passing
through. It has been asserted the extent to which FDI contributes to growth
depends on economic and social conditions or in short the quality of the
environment of the recipient country (Zhang, 2001).
Thus, employment opportunities are created through FDI in the hosting countries
and this is done through direct employment in the domestic economy for
operations, for forward and backward connections, leads to more employment
creation in the economy due to growth. Growth can be generated through FDI and
a steady state of growth over a period of time reduces poverty (Ajayi, 2006).
2.1.6 Brief Background of the current state of Foreign Direct Investment in
Nigeria
According to UNCATD (2019) report, Nigeria is the one of the popular economy
for FDI in Africa. The nation is part of the encouraging bodies for growth in Africa
and leads investors to the sector of hydrocarbon, energy, building, etc. the nation
experiences impact of oil counter stun. UNCATD indicated that FDI streams
Nigeria totaled USD 1.9billion in 2018 and demonstrated a decline when estimated
to last year’s (USD 3.5 billion in 2017) under the effects of austerity measures.
Estimated at USD 99.6billion in 2018, the total shock of FDI represents 25.1% of
the country’s GDP. The important countries that invest in Nigeria include China,
USA, Netherlands, United Kingdom and France. Nigeria has the intention of the
diversifying its economy by staying away from oil and building a competitive
manufacturing sector which would encourage interaction into global value chains
and productivity. The recent merging of trade, investment and industry under the
scope of the federal ministry of industry, trade and investment mirrors Nigeria’s
aim to successfully manage between these three key areas to increase its trading
and investment mirror Nigeria’s aim to successfully manage between these three
key areas to increase its trading and investment condition. A portion of the
country’s advantages are a partially privatized economy, a good taxation system,
abundant natural resources and low cost of labor. Problems such as political
instability, corruption, lack of transparency and poor quality of infrastructure are
restricting the country’s FDI potential. In 2019, business report published by World
Bank ranked Nigeria as the 146th once drop compared to 2018 report. However,
Nigeria has been attracting strong inflows from big American companies like Uber,
Facebook as well as emergent payments and Melt ware group. China has also been
investing in the country especially in the aerospace, automobile and textile
industries.
2.1.7 Historical Trends of FDI inflow in Nigeria
After independence, Nigeria potential in attracting foreign direct investment was
large, but it was not long before it was daunted. At the onset, the enthusiasm of
Nigerian governments at embracing foreign direct investment was based on a list
of opportunities expected to be derived from such investment, but this was short
lived. In fact, as early as 1962, Nigerians started to believe that opening up of the
economy to foreign investor may not be the best way to develop the economy, FDI
was seen as “parasitic” and retarding the development of domestic industries for
export promotion Ayanwale (2007). Between 1963 and 1972 an average of 65% of
total capital was in foreign hands (Ogunkola and Jerome, 2004). The policy maker
argument was premised on the fact that the economy should not be dominated by
foreigners (fear of another form of colonialism), as well as possible divergences
between the foreign investors and Nigeria’s macro-economic policy objectives
(Obioma, 1997).
Over the years therefore, substantial statutory provisions were inserted into
Nigeria’s foreign investment policies and strategies, some of these were counter-
productive towards attracting FDI into Nigerian economy (e.g. Exchange Control
Act of 1962, Immigration Act of 1963, Company Act of 1968 and the Nigeria
Enterprise Promotion Decree, popularly known as indigenous decree of 1972, and
1976). In addition, over 3 years of civil war led to lack of clear jurisdiction of
government agencies charged with FDI approvals, corruption and red-tapism at the
public sector all made the investment environment to become unfriendly. By the
early 1980s, it was clear that the overvalued naira could no longer sustain adequate
foreign exchange to repatriate proceeds of foreign investors operating in the
country. This was further reduced to 35% by January 1, 1992. The present level of
30% took effect from January 1, 1996.
In addition, various tax incentive measures have been given to manufacturing
industry. For instance, effect from 1990, agriculture and manufacturing industries
were granted 10% investment allowance for the first year of purchase of property
and machinery. Also, manufacturing and construction industries were granted
accelerated depreciation in plant and machinery from 20% initial and 10% annual
allowances in 1986 to 25% and 10% in 1989 and then to 50% and 25% in 1996.
Import duties on manufacturing machineries have been fluctuating since 1985. It
was reduced from 15% to 10% in 1985, and reverted to its old rate of 15% in 1993.
It fell to its lowest rate of 5% in1995 and since 1999 to date, the import duties on
manufacturing machineries remain at 10%. All these efforts are geared towards
attracting investment especially foreign direct investment.
The push toward privatization continued in early 1997, with the government’s
objective switching from restoring economic stability to expanding privatization
and the promotion of growth. Despite these formal measures and reforms, foreign
investors‟ perceptions of Nigeria did not considerably improve during the period.
In fact, the institutional investor measure of country risk decreased dramatically
since 1981, the year in which the figure was the highest and notably before
substantial liberalization measures. By 1985, the figure had been reduced by half,
and the value in 1998 is on record as the lowest. As a proportion of the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP), FDI accounted for 3.6% in 1970s, 4.3% in 1980s, 3.0%
in 1990s and 1.4% during 1991 – 1998. (Source: CBN, Statistical Bulletin, various
issues). The actual time series of flows is also telling. The political instability
marked by military coups in December 1983 and August 1985 as well as continued
intervention by the military throughout the 1990s; explain the failure of financial
liberalization to affect improved investor perception or substantial increases in
Foreign Direct Investment.
Through the Foreign Direct Investment, the Multinationals engage not only in
trade across the globe, but also are responsible for the relocation of production
plants and allocation of what is now known as international capital. They
constantly seek to broaden their markets and escape the national conditions and
legislation in the area of production. In essence, it is argued that they decide where
the capital goes and when, through their investment decisions. According to Sanusi
and Garba (2003), to international investors such as MNCs, globalization is
breaking national barriers to trade and capital is attracted when countries offer
competitive returns, relative security and freedom of entry and exit which are made
available through globalization.
We would like to add that the pursuit of FDI without serious attention to what
would make Nigerians invest in their own country only results in foreigners
focusing on enclave-type economic activities, notably oil and gas. (An enclave
economic activity is one in which investors can make quick huge returns with
minimal exposure to the prevailing hostile investment climate and without any
significant linkages to the host economy).
In the oil sector, the lack of investment in oil refineries for decades and the
consequent high prices and unending periodic shortages of petrol and diesel is a
testimony to the enclave nature of investment in the sector.During 2003–2007,
Global FDI flows followed an upward trend, fuelled by steady world economic
growth, ongoing liberalization in investment regimes and the implementation of
large-scale internationalization strategies by a growing number of transnational
corporations (TNCs). This led to an unprecedented level in FDI flows in 2007,
with flows reaching a historic record of $2.0 trillion (UNCTAD, January 2009).
The figure stood at $1.3 trillion in 2012 (UNCTAD, 2013).
2.2 Theoretical Review
Theoretical study on FDI have led to a better understanding of the economic
mechanism and the behavior of economic agents, both at micro and macro level
which allows the opening of new areas of study in economic theory. To understand
FDI we have to identify and understand the main trends in FDI theory, how these
theories were developed and their motivations. Theories of FDI may be classified
under the following headings:
2.2.1 Classical Theory
In broad terms, the classical theory claims that FDI and multinational corporations
(MNCs) contribute to the economic development of host countries through a
number of channels. These include the transfer of capital, advanced technological
equipment and skills, the improvement in balance of payment, expansion of tax
base and foreign exchange earnings, creation of employment and the integration of
the host economy into international markets. These claims about FDI has been
amplified by the phenomenal economic growth of the newly industrialized
countries like; Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea especially in the
1980s and early 1990s (Muchlinski 1995 and Umar 1980) and more recently by
china`s impressive growth. With its emphasis on the importance of FDI and limited
state role, the classical doctrine has been propagated in recent years by
international institutions and organizations like the United Nations (UN), the World
Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
2.2.2 The Dependency Theory
Drawing from the experience of Latin America, proponents of this theory argue
that relations of free trade and foreign investment with the industrialized countries
are the main causes of underdevelopment and exploitation of developing
economies (Wilham and Witter, (1998). This theory focuses largely on the
relationship between center and periphery. Well developed and industrialized
countries are deemed to constitute the center and the least developed countries the
periphery. In this regard, FDI is seen as a conduit through which the center exploits
the periphery and perpetuates the latter`s state of underdevelopment and
dependence.
Instead of promoting economic development, foreign investment strangulates such
development and perpetuates the domination of weaker states (Somarazah, 1994).
MNCs are accused of being exploiters. These views are largely informed by the
fact that multinationals have often been involved in the exploitation of natural
resources with no corresponding benefits for host economies (UNCTAD, 1999).
The dependency theory is very much a reaction against this “extractive nature” of
FDI.
2.2.3 The Intervention/Integration/Middle Path Theory
The intervention or integrative school attempts to analyze FDI from the perspective
of the host country as well as that of the investor. It incorporates arguments from
both classical and dependency theorists. The theory posits that foreign investment
must be protected but only to the extent of the benefit it brings the host state and
the extent to which foreign investors have behaved as good corporate citizens in
promoting the economic and social objectives of the host country. The theory calls
for a mixture of intervention and openness in dealing with foreign investment and
cautions against too much regulation or intervention (Seid, 2002). The theory
recognizes that there are instances where the market is better placed to act and
other instances where government intervention is necessary. What is needed
therefore is a balancing act between those activities that can best be handled by the
market and those that can be done by the government. This theory represents a
convergence between Adam Smith`s case of laissez-faire and Keynes`s argument
in favor of government intervention. Other theories include the production cycle
theory of Vernon, internationalization theory, industrial organization approach and
eclectic paradigm.
2.2.4 Production Cycle Theory of Vernon
Production cycle theory developed by Vernon in 1966 was used to explain certain
types of foreign direct investment made by U.S. companies in Western Europe
after the Second World War in the manufacturing industry. The theory attempts to
integrate three stages of production in order to explain the life cycle of a product.
The first stage of this model deals with the introduction of innovation. It is argued
that new products will be invented, produced and sold in countries with the highest
incomes and skill. If the product meets with success in a wealthy market,
production increases, new markets are explored and export develops. This marks
the beginning of the second stage – maturity. In this stage the price elasticity of
demand for the product is comparatively low. The demand for the product rises in
the foreign market and competitors emerge. The original producer establishes a
production unit in the foreign country to cater to the increased foreign demand as
well as to compete with rivals. It is in the second stage that the firm goes
international. The final stage is characterized by product standardization. The
production technique becomes well-known and reaches its zenith. As a result,
investment moves on further to any location in the world where costs are at the
lowest possible level. Thereafter, the product is exported to the original country of
innovation where the product is phased out in order to favor innovation of yet
another product. Thus, the exporter becomes an importer at this stage of
production. This theory fails to explain why it is profitable for a firm to undertake
FDI rather than continuing to export from the home country or by licensing a
foreign firm to produce its products. It simply argues that once a foreign market is
large enough to support local production, FDI will take place. However, it fails to
identify when it is profitable to invest internationally. Vernon (1979) recognized
that the situation had changed rapidly since he had developed his theory and that
this had considerably weakened its predictive power (Latorre, 2008).
2.2.5 Internalization Theory of Foreign Direct Investment
Buckley and Casson (1976) provided another explanation of FDI by putting
emphasis on intermediate inputs and technology. They shifted the focus of the
international investment theory from country-specific towards industry-level and
firm-level determinants of FDI (Henisz, 2003). Buckley and Casson analyzed
MNCs within a broad-based framework developed by Coase (1937). Their theory
came to be known as internalization theory as they stressed this fact with regard to
the creation of MNCs. They articulated their theory based on three postulates;
a) Firms maximize profits in a market that is imperfect.
b) When markets in intermediate products are imperfect, there is an incentive to
bypass them by creating internal markets.
c) Internalization of markets across the world leads to MNCs.
A firm that is engaged in research and development may develop a new technology
or process, or inputs. It may be difficult to transfer technology or sell the inputs to
other unrelated firms because those other firms may find the transaction costs to be
too high. Faced with this situation, a firm may choose to internalize by using
backward and forward integration, i.e., the output of one subsidiary can be used as
an input to the production of another, or technology developed by one subsidiary
may be utilized in others. When internalization involves operations in different
countries then it necessarily means FDI. Buckley and Casson (1976) identified five
types of market imperfections that result in internalization:
i. The co-ordination of resources requires a long time lag:
ii. The efficient exploitation of market power requires discriminatory pricing;
iii. A bilateral monopoly produces unstable bargaining situations;
iv. A buyer cannot correctly estimate the price of the goods on sale; and
v. A government intervention in international markets creates an incentive for
transfer pricing. Although Buckley and Casson acknowledged the risk of
host government intervention, they did not consider the difference in the
magnitude of this risk across various industries.
2.2.6 Industrial Organization Approach
In his 1960 doctoral dissertation, Hymer (1976) developed the FDI theory of
industrial organization. His theory, which was one of the first works to explain
international production in an imperfect market framework, was supported by
Lemfalussy (1961), Kindleberger (1969), Knickerbocker (1973), Caves (1974),
Dunning (1974), Vaitsos (1974) and Cohen (1975) among others. The essence of
Hymer’s theory is that firms operating abroad have to compete with domestic firms
that are in an advantageous position in terms of culture, language, legal system and
consumer’s preference. Furthermore, foreign firms are also exposed to foreign
exchange risk. These disadvantages must be offset by some form of market power
in order to make international investment profitable. The sources of market power
– the firm-specific advantage in Hymer’s terms or monopolistic advantage in
Kindleberger’s terms – are in the form of patent-protected superior technology,
brand names, marketing and management skills, economies of scale and cheaper
sources of finance.
Hymer (1976) has said that technological superiority is the most important
advantage as it facilitates the introduction of new products with new features.
Moreover, the possession of knowledge helps in developing other skills such as
marketing and improved production process. Since the market is imperfect, firms
are able to take advantage of their market power to reap good profits by investing
abroad. This argument was supported by some other researchers. For example,
Graham and Krugman (1989) stated that in the past it was the technological
advantage possessed by European firms that had led to them investing in the
United States. Sodersten (1970) also argued that willingness to increase profits by
taking advantage of technological superiority or superior organizational structure
were the main reasons for direct investment. However, at the same time, critics
such as Robock and Simmond (1983) argued that possessing firm-specific
advantages did not necessarily mean investment abroad as firms might very well
exploit their advantages through exporting or licensing. The foregone explanation
transformed FDI theory from neoclassical trade theories into the industrial
organization theory. Hymer’s thesis does not form a complete explanation for FDI
because it fails to explain where and when FDI takes place. This has been
attempted by Vernon’s (1966) PLC theory, the eclectic approach by Dunning
(1977, 1979 and 1988) and the internalization theory by Buckley and Casson
(1976).
2.2.7 Eclectic Paradigm to Foreign Direct Investment
In the 1970s one of the most robust and comprehensive theories of FDI was
developed by Dunning (2007). In his path breaking work, Dunning (1977 and
1979) amalgamated the major imperfect market-based theories-the oligopolistic
and internalization theories – and added a third dimension in the form of location
theory to explain why a firm opens a foreign subsidiary. Location theory addresses
the important questions of who produces what goods or services in which
locations, and why? Location theory has also been frequently applied by
researchers in attempting to understand the factors that influence locations of MNC
units. Among others, they enumerated factors such as host country policies,
economic fundamentals, firm strategy, and agglomeration economies. On the basis
of the above, Dunning (1993) put forward his theory, which came to be known as
the eclectic paradigm or OLI paradigm. FDI if three conditions were fulfilled:
a. Dunning suggested that a firm would engage in It should have ownership
advantages vis-à-vis other firms (O);
b. It is beneficial to internalize these advantages rather than to use the market to
transfer them to foreign firms (I);
c. There are some location advantages in using a firm’s ownership advantages
in a foreign locale (L)
Ownership advantages are those which are specific to a firm. These advantages,
which may be enjoyed over domestic and foreign competitors, are in the form of
both tangible and intangible assets. These ownership advantages lead to reductions
in a firm’s production costs and allow it to compete with firms in a foreign country.
Location advantages of different countries play a significant role in determining
which country will play host to the activities of multinational corporations. As
indicated above, a firm gain from avoiding market imperfections in terms of
uncertainty, problems of control, lack of desirability of giving full information to
potential buyers etc. The internalization gains make it more profitable to carry out
transactions within the firm than to depend on external markets. The essential
feature in the eclectic theory is that all three types of conditions must be satisfied
before FDI occurs. Dunning (1980) stated that the “OLI triad of variables
determining FDI and MNCs activities may be likened to a three legged stool; each
leg is supportive of the others, and the stool is only functional if the three legs are
evenly balanced”. What this means is that a firm having ownership advantage, and
where there are internationalization gains but no locational advantage is incurred
by setting up a unit in a foreign country, will very likely choose to increase its
production at home and export its product(s) abroad. In the same way, a firm
having ownership and locational advantages will find it more profitable to produce
abroad than to produce domestically and export its product(s); however, if there are
no internalization gains then the firm will be better off licensing its ownership
advantage to foreign firms. The major contribution by Dunning’s eclectic paradigm
to the existing literature on FDI was to combine several complementary theories,
and identify a set of factors that influence the activities of MNCs. For this reason,
his theory gained wider acceptance than other imperfect market-based theories.
Dunning (1980) empirically tested his theory and obtained satisfactory results.
However, one of the main criticisms of the eclectic paradigm is that it includes so
many variables that it loses any operational practicality. Dunning himself accepted
this fact and stated that it was an inevitable consequence of trying to incorporate
the different motivations behind FDI into one general theory.
2.4 Empirical Review
A wide range of studies are available in literature on the impact of FDI on
Nigeria’s economic improvement and also on the determinant of FDI.
Ugochukwu, Okoro and Onoh (2013) in their study on the impact of FDI on
economic growth using the ordinary least square method and granger causality test
reached a conclusion that FDI has a positive and significant impact on economic
growth. Interest rate was found to be positive and insignificant while exchanged
rate positively and significantly affect the growth of the Nigerian economy.
Ijeoma (2012) using ordinary least square regression technique ascertained that
general objective FDI positively impacts the growth of the Nigeria economy.
Adeleke, Olowe and oluwafolakemi (2014) also using the same methodology
reached the conclusion that economic growth is directly related to inflow of FDI.
Okon, Jacob and Chuku (2011) using single and simultaneous equation systems
pointed out that foreign direct investment and economic growth are simultaneously
determined in Nigeria and there is positive feedback from FDI to growth and from
growth to FDI.
Anfofum, Gambo and Suleiman (2013) in their study on the impact of FDI in
Nigeria using ordinary least square equation which was disaggregated into five
equations, a co-integration and granger causality techniques concluded that foreign
direct investment is a positive measure of economic growth.
Matthew and Johnson (2013) using ordinary least square (OLS) method in their
paper “Accelerating Economic Growth in Nigeria, the Role of Foreign Direct
Investment: A Reassessment” reached a result that foreign direct investment and
domestic savings make significant contribution to the growth economy of Nigeria.
In another study of theirs on the impact of FDI on employment generation in
Nigeria also using ordinary least square regression granger test, Dickey-Fuller and
Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test ascertained that FDI has a positive
impact on employment generation.
Olumuyiwa (2013) in his study on the impact of FDI inflow on economic growth
in a pre and post deregulated Nigeria economy covering the period 1970 to 2010
using Granger causality test ascertained that there is a causality relationship in the
pre-deregulation era that is (1970-1986) from economic growth (GDP) to FDI
inflow which means GDP causes FDI, but there is no causality relationship in the
post-deregulation era that is (1986-2010) between economic growth (GDP) and
FDI inflow which means GDP does not cause FDI. However, between 1970 to
2010 shows that there is a causality relationship between economic growth (GDP)
and FDI inflow. That is, economic growth drives FDI inflow in the country and
vice versa.
Onuoha and Oregwu (2013) using ordinary least square regression in their study on
the determinant of FDI and the Nigerian economy reached a result that GDP does
not bring about foreign direct investment. Transportation and communication
exhibit positive relationship with FDI and the openness of trade is not significant.
Adaramolo and Obisesan (2015) in their study on the impact of FDI on the
Nigerian capital market development using ordinary least square, ADF unit root
test, and Johansen co integration test reached a conclusion that Foreign Direct
Investment impact positively and significantly on market capitalization.
Danja (2012) utilizing ordinary least square regression in his study on FDI
revealed that FDI has a positive relationship with Gross Fixed Capital Formation
and index of industrial production but FDI has not contributed much to the growth
and development of the Nigerian economy.
Adebisi, Anogundade, Oluwakayado and Oyatoye (2011) on FDI, exports and
economic growth in Nigeria resulted a positive relationship between foreign direct
investment and gross domestic product and a positive relationship between foreign
direct investment and export. This result was reached using ordinary least square
regression. Akinlo (2004) investigates the impact of foreign direct investment on
economic growth in Nigeria using data for the period 1970 to 2001. His error
correction model (ECM) results show that both private capital and lagged foreign
capital have small significant impact on export and economic growth.
Olokoye (2012) studied FDI and economic growth using Nigeria as the case study.
She used ordinary least square (OLS) regression technique to test the time series
from 1970 to 2007 and Cochrane-or cutt iterative method was used to correct for
autocorrelation and the result evidently do not provide much support for the view
of a robust link between FDI and economic growth in Nigeria. Though the result
does not imply that FDI is unimportant, the analysis reduces the confidence in the
belief that FDI has exerted an independent growth effect in Nigeria.
Njogu (2013) examined the determinants of FDI in pre and deregulated Nigerian
economy using multiple regression model, unit root test, co-integration and
granger causality test in her analysis revealed that, exchange rate, inflation, and
degree of openness in pre deregulated Nigerian economy had a negative and non-
significant impact on foreign direct investment. While market size had a positive
and non-significant impact on foreign direct investment. In deregulated Nigerian
economy, exchange rate and degree of openness had a negative and non significant
impact on foreign direct investment. Inflation rate had a positive and non-
significant impact and market size had a positive and significant impact on foreign
direct investment in the Nigerian economy.
Osaghale and Amenkhieman (1987), investigates the relationship between FDI and
economic growth in Nigeria and found out that there was increment in Nigeria’s
revenue from oil export between 1970 and 1982 and there was a substantial growth
in her foreign debits and FDI. The results made it known that there was a positive
relationship between FDI and GDP and the conclusion of the study was of the view
that the economy would perform better with greater inflow of FDI and it also
recommended that less developed countries should create more a conducive
environment for FDI. Aromu (2003) observed that FDI can raise the level of
capital formation, promote export and generate exchange. Indeed, the role of FDI
in capital formation in Nigeria has been increasing over the years.
Isah (2012) examined the long term determinants of foreign direct investment in
Nigeria covering a period of 1971 to 2009 using Vector Error Correction
Mechanism (VECM). His results provided evidence which indicates that the size
of Nigeria’s domestic market, the liberalization policy and openness of the
economy as well as stable domestic currency are significant in attracting FDI. He
further recommended that Nigeria should strengthen its investment environment by
reducing obstacles to doing business, improving Nigeria’s economic management
and export promotion schemes.
Nurudeen and Wafure (2010) detected on the determinants of foreign direct
investment in Nigeria a result that revealed market size, deregulation, political
instability and exchange rate depreciation are the main determinants of foreign
direct Sinvestment in Nigeria. They made use of the error correction technique to
analyze the relationship between foreign direct investment and its determinants.
They recommended that further deregulation of the economy through privatization
and reduction of government interference and strengthening of the political
institutions will promote foreign direct investment.
2.5 Gap(S) Identified In the Literature
Foreign direct investment is becoming a very important area of research in Nigeria.
Studies have been carried out on the impact of foreign direct investment on the
Nigerian economy and also on the determinants of foreign direct investment.
Having examined some literatures, it was to observe that certain aspects of FDI
were not examined thoroughly by past researches.
Some of the findings from the literatures revealed that foreign direct investment
has a positive impact on economic growth (see Ugochukuw, Okore and Onoh
(2013); Ijeoma (2012); Chuku, Jacob and Umoh (2011); Anfofum, Gambo and
Suleman (2013); Johnson and Mathew (2013); Adebisi, Arogundade,
Oluwakayado and Oyatoye (2011), Osaghale and Amenkhieman (1987), while
others revealed a negative or inconclusive impact (see Danja (2012); Olokoye
(2012).Different studies were done on the determinant of FDI and some of the
variables revealed to have significant impact on FDI include Transport,
Communication, Trade openness, Market size, stability of the current, deregulation
and exchange rate (see Njogo (2013); Onuoha and Oregwu (2013), Isah (2012);
Nurudeen (2010).
However, this study will modify the previous studies by including a different
Variable which includes Manufacturing, Services and Primary Sector (Mining and
Extraction Industries). Most of the researches carried out made use of ordinary
least square regression which is a weak methodology for the study of FDI because
it fails to capture the interdependency of macroeconomic variables, hence the need
to carry out this study which will analyze the impact of Foreign Direct Investment
on Economic Growth, we will also make use of a different technique of statistical
analysis and also extend the span year from 1983-2020
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