TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON THE MONTHLY CRUDE OIL PRICE IN NIGERIA FOR THE PERIOD OF TEN YEARS (2013-2022)
Abstract
This study is on ARIMA model approach for crude oil price in Nigeria for the period of ten years (2013-2022). ADF and KPSS test were used to check the stationarity of the data after the time series plot indicates an upward trend. The result showed that the data were non-stationary but became stationary after taking the first difference. Several tentative models were selected among which ARIMA (1,1,1) was selected for having the minimum AIC and BIC. The findings revealed that ARIMA (1,1,1) model were judged to be the best model for forecasting. The study recommended that Government should give immediate attention to the indigenes of the region where crude oil is being extracted from. This will reduce the unrest in that region.
Full-Text Access Notice
In accordance with the NERD Policy on promoting peer-reviewed publication, public access to the full text of a project, thesis or dissertation is restricted for three years, allowing the author and supervisors sufficient time to pursue peer-reviewed publication.
During this period, researchers with legitimate academic or research purposes may request authorisation directly from the author to enable NERD to release the indexed full texts of the work using the form below.