TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON LIVE BIRTH (A CASE STUDY OF UNITY MEDICAL CENTRE, ELEYELE IBADAN) (2015-2024)

This project is based on the Application of Time Series Techniques in forecasting the Live Birth Rate at Unity Medical Centre, Eleyele, Ibadan between 2015 and 2024. The data used were mainly secondary extracted from Record Unit of Unity Medical Centre, Eleyele, Ibadan between 2015 and 2024. This study investigates the pattern of Live Birth Rate at Unity Medical Centre, Eleyele, Ibadan using AR, MA and ARIMA models. Three different approaches were used to test for stationary of the time series. The first approach is time plot which shows that a stationarity time series will have no predictable patterns in long-term. Time plots will show the series to be roughly horizontal (although some cyclic behavior is possible) with constant variance. The second approach is the ACF and PACF plots to detect the stationary in the time series through the plot. The third approach is Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test in which the stationary series has ADF value with a significant test value. The result reveals that there is a downward trend and the 1st difference of the series was stationary, meaning that the series was I (1). Base on the selection criteria AIC, the model that explains the series was found to be ARIMA (0, 1, 4). The diagnosis on such model was confirmed, the error was made which indicate that there will be decrease in the Live Birth Rate at Unity Medical Centre, Eleyele, Ibadan. Based on the outcome of the analysis, it is suggested that the management of Unity Medical Centre should integrate the results of the live birth rate forecasts into their strategic planning processes. This will ensure that adequate maternity beds, medical supplies, and other essential facilities are made available to meet the projected demands.