ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ON TOTAL REVENUE OF FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OF NIGERIA

ABSTRACT Econometric analysis was used to study the impact of total revenue of the Federal Government on Nigeria economic growth between 2003 to 2023. The data were culled from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) bulletin. The least square method was used to find the value of slope β ̂0 = 273.196,and the intercepts β ̂1 = 0.970, β ̂2 = 0.731, β ̂3 = 1.54 for Federation Account, Value Added Tax and Internal Revenue respectively. Then, the regression model was fitted as Y ̂i = 273.196 + 0.970X1 + 0.731X2 + 1.541X3which implied that the all explanatory variables have positive contribution to Federal Government of Nigeria Total Revenue. The F-test (ANOVA) was used to test for significant of joint parameters, the result showed that β’s is jointly significant to the model. Spearman rank correlation was used to test for the presence of heteroscedasticity, the results obtained showed that there is high rank of correlation coefficient which signified that there is presence of heteroscedasticity in the data. The Variance Inflation Factor test was used to test the presence of multicollinearity and this concludes that the regression model does not have the problem of multicollinearity. The test of autocorrelation was done using Durbin Watson test and it indicated that error terms are not correlated. The test of predictive power also revealed that the fitted model is capable for prediction at 96.9%. It is also recommended that the federal government should expand non-oil revenue sources by strengthening agriculture, manufacturing, and ICT sectors and improve VAT Administration.