ARIMA MODEL ON THE PREVALENCE OF MALARIA IN MAKURDI (2020-2024).
Abstract
This study utilizes an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast the prevalence of malaria in Makurdi, Benue State, Nigeria, over a five-year period (2020-2024). Given the high prevalence of malaria in the region, with studies indicating a significant rate among infants and children under five years of age, pregnant women and people living with HIV/AIDS, with people entering areas with intense malaria transmission who have not acquired partial immunity from long exposure to the disease, or who has not taking chemo preventive therapies. By analyzing historical data and identifying underlying trends and patterns, this research aims to provide accurate predictions of future malaria cases. The findings of this study will enable healthcare authorities to develop targeted interventions, allocate resources more effectively, and ultimately reduce the burden of malaria in the region. The ARIMA model performance will be evaluated based on its ability to capture the temporal dynamics of malaria transmission, providing valuable insights for malaria control and prevention strategies.
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