EFFECT OF INFLATION ON SCHOOL ENROLMENT IN NIGERIA.

Abstract The study examined the effect of inflation on School Enrolment in Nigeria. The study employed annual time series from 1990 to 2024. The problem statement is that the increasing cost of living has a particular detrimental effect on education in Nigeria. The specific objectives of the study are to examine: the trend of inflation in Nigeria, the determinants of inflation in Nigeria, the effects of inflation on school enrolment in Nigeria, and provide possible recommendations to the effect of inflation on school enrolment in Nigeria. The study applied the Keynesian Theory of Demand-Pull Inflation, the Phillips Curve and the Monetarists. The study made use of secondary time series data which were obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin, WDI, etc. The study used Gross Enrolment Rate as dependent variable, which comprise of Primary School Enrolment, Secondary School Enrolment and Tertiary School Enrolment, while Government Expenditure on Education, Inflation rate, Exchange rate and Real Gross Domestic Product were used as independent variables. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, unit root test, long-run relationship, Johansen cointegration test, ARDL Bond test, serial correlation, heteroskedasticity test and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimate via E-view 9. The findings of the study shows that RGDP and INFR has a negative relationship with PSE while GEE and EXGR has a positive relationship PSE in Nigeria. Secondly, GEE and INFR has a negative relationship with SSE, while RGDP and EXGR has a positive relationship with SSE in Nigeria. And thirdly, INFR has a negative relationship with TSE, while RGDP, GEE and EXGR has a positive relationship with TSE in Nigeria. The study concluded that Inflation has a negative effect on Primary, Secondary and Tertiary school Enrolment in Nigeria. It is also concluded that inadequate allocation to education also affect Primary, Secondary and Tertiary school Enrolment in Nigeria. Based on the conclusion, the study recommend that federal and state governments should increase the budgetary allocation to all primary schools, secondary schools and tertiary schools for effective operation. It was also recommended that government should embark on more infrastructure development and restore peace and security in the northern and Middle Belt regions to put inflation under control in the interest of the poor in Nigeria.