MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF HIV TRANSMISSION AMONG KEY POPULATIONS IN NIGERIA

HIV continues to pose a significant public health challenge, especially among key populations such as men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW), people who inject drugs (PWID), and transgender individuals. These groups face a disproportionately higher burden of HIV due to behavioral, social, and structural vulnerabilities. Despite the availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and other prevention strategies, HIV prevalence remains persistently high within these populations. This project develops a mathematical model to simulate HIV transmission dynamics specifically among key populations in Nigeria. The model incorporates four main compartments: Susceptible (S), Infected (I), those undergoing Treatment (T), and those Recovered or Deceased (R). Using available 2022-2023 epidemiological data, the model is parameterized to reflect local prevalence rates and intervention dynamics. Key parameters such as transmission rate, diagnosis and treatment initiation rate, viral suppression rate, Interruption in treatment and AIDS-related mortality rate are considered and calibrated accordingly. Simulations are conducted to assess the impact of various intervention scenarios, including improved testing and treatment coverage, enhanced viral suppression, and reduced transmission rates. Results suggest that targeted interventions—particularly those that increase diagnosis and treatment uptake—can significantly reduce HIV incidence in high-risk groups. The findings from this study provide actionable insights for local public health authorities to design data-driven policies and optimize resource allocation. The model also contributes to the broader literature on localized HIV modeling, offering a replicable framework for other regions facing similar epidemiological challenges.