TREND ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF AGRICULTURAL LOAN ON FARMING GROWTH IN NIGERIA
Abstract
The study examined the agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund on Cash Crop, Livestock and
Gross Domestic Product over the period 1981 to 2019. The objective of the study is to the impact
of the long-term relationship between various agricultural credit guarantee scheme funds on Cash
Crop, Livestock on Nigeria’s economic growth. The study employs the stationary test, the cointegration test, the and error correction model. All variables were stationary at the first difference,
and the co-integration test evidenced a long-run relationship. The study identified, in the long run,
that; the agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund on Cash Crop, Livestock shows a positive and
significant influence on the gross domestic product in Nigeria.
Agricultural credit guarantee scheme fund on Cash Crop, Livestock shows a positive and
significant influence on the gross domestic product in Nigeria within the reference period. In light
of the findings, the study concluded that all the variables employed predict Nigeria’s gross
domestic product.
Furthermore, The linear trend of GDP using the ordinary least square (OLS) approach shows an
upward trend with fitted model Y = 12969.566 – 139679.778t. Also the linear trend of value of
loan granted on cash crop using the ordinary least square (OLS) approach shows an upward trend
with fitted model Y = 40780.733 – 351237.747t.
The study recommends that the Federal government should motivate commercial banks to provide
adequate credit facilities to the Agricultural sector through moderate bank lending rates for ease
of farming business in Nigeria. Proactive campaigns on the availability of credit facilities for
farmers to enable them to have access to loans at a single-digit interest rate. This could be achieved
through social media, door-to-door vibes, town hall meetings and market squares. Government
should create an enabling environment for farmers through the provision of adequate security, pest
control measures and seedlings
Full-Text Access Notice
In accordance with the NERD Policy on promoting peer-reviewed publication, public access to the full text of a project, thesis or dissertation is restricted for three years, allowing the author and supervisors sufficient time to pursue peer-reviewed publication.
During this period, researchers with legitimate academic or research purposes may request authorisation directly from the author to enable NERD to release the indexed full texts of the work using the form below.