THE ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT OF METHANE: A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF AIR TEMPERATURE, GLOBAL WARMING, AND SHORTWAVE INCOMING RADIATION IN BIRNIN KEBBI

ABSTRACT This study examines the enhanced greenhouse effect of methane and its influence on air temperature, global warming, and shortwave incoming radiation in Birnin Kebbi, Northwestern Nigeria. The research was motivated by the rising concern over the continuous increase in atmospheric methane concentration and its potential to amplify regional climate variability. Methane (CH₄), although less abundant than carbon dioxide, is recognized as one of the most potent greenhouse gases, with a global warming potential approximately 28–36 times greater than CO₂ over a 100-year period (Myhre et al., 2013). The accumulation of methane in the atmosphere enhances the trapping of longwave infrared radiation, thereby increasing surface air temperature and disrupting the Earth’s natural energy balance. The data used in this study were obtained from NASA’s Giovanni platform, employing MERRA-2 and MODIS satellite datasets covering the period from 2015 to 2025. The parameters analyzed included methane concentration (ppb), air temperature (°C), and shortwave incoming radiation (W/m²). A multivariate statistical approach was applied to examine the interrelationship between these variables, focusing on how methane concentration contributes to temperature anomalies and changes in radiative forcing within the study area. The results revealed a consistent upward trend in methane concentration, corresponding to a gradual increase in mean annual air temperature from 29.6 °C in 2015 to 30.3 °C in 2025. The correlation analysis indicated a strong positive relationship between methane concentration and air temperature, suggesting that methane significantly contributes to the observed local warming