AGRICULTURAL POLICY AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN NIGERIA (1999-2024)

ABSTRACT This study examines the impact of agricutural expenditure and agricultural credit finance on unemployment in Nigeria, drawing on annual time-series data to provide empirical insights into employment effects of agricultural policy interventions Anchored in the Keynesian Employment Theory, Productivity Theory, and Neoclassical Growth Theory, the study adopts the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, which accommodates variables integrated at order I(0), Il). or a mix of both, and captures hoth short-run and long-run relationships. Descriptive statistics and unit root tests (ADF and PP) were conducted. followed by cointegration analysis, short-run and long-run estimations, and diagnostic tests to ensure model robustness. The findings reveal that agricultural expenditure exerts a significant long-run negative effect on unemployment, indicating that sustained public investment in agriculture can enhance labour absorption. Similarly, agricultural credit finance demonstrates a positive role in reducing unemployment by facilitating access to productive resources and promoting commercialization. However, the magnitude of these effects is moderated by structural bottlenecks such as limited credit access, infrastructural deficits, and policy implementation inefficiencies. The study concludes that while both policy instruments are vital for employment generation, their effectiveness depends on the adequacy, targeting, and efficient utilization of resources. It recommends scaling up agricultural investments, reforming rural credit schemes to lower barriers to access, and integrating complementary policies to address structural constraints in the sector