TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON SALES OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN NIGERIA

This study analyzes the sales patterns of three petroleum products Petrol, Diesel, and Kerosene in NNPC from 2005 to 2025, using statistical and time series modeling methods. Monthly sales data exhibited significant fluctuations, with no clear long-term trend for any product, but remained centered around stable averages. Stationary tests confirmed the suitability of the data for time series modeling, with Petrol and Diesel already stationary, while Kerosene required first-order differencing. ARIMA models were employed, capturing the short-term dynamics of each product, with ARIMA(2,0,0) for Petrol, ARIMA(0,0,0)(2,0,0)[12] for Diesel, and ARIMA(1,0,2) for Kerosene, each demonstrating good fit and minimal autocorrelation in residuals. Forecasts for 2025 indicate stability in sales, reflecting historical averages with moderate variability. The findings underscore the volatile but consistent nature of Nigeria’s petroleum market, heavily influenced by external factors. To address these challenges, recommendations include adopting advanced forecasting techniques, investing in infrastructure, implementing stabilizing policies, promoting sustainable energy alternatives, and conducting further research on underlying sales dynamics. These strategies aim to enhance market efficiency, mitigate volatility, and ensure a resilient energy sector for Nigeria. This study offers valuable insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers, emphasizing data-driven approaches to decision-making.