EFFECT OF COST VOLUME PROFIT ANALYSIS ON MANAGEMENT PLANNING, CONTROL AND DECISION MAKING OF A MANUFACTURING COMPANY. (A STUDY OF DANGOTE CEMENTPLC, LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA)
Abstract
This study investigates the effects of exchange rate movements, international oil prices, and changes in oil prices on Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) over the period 2004–2024. Secondary time series data were obtained, processed, and analyzed using descriptive statistics, diagnostic tests, multiple regression models, and analysis of variance (ANOVA). Preliminary data diagnostics confirmed the reliability of the dataset, with two missing GDP observations (2023–2024) and one statistical extreme in the exchange rate series identified but retained as genuine macroeconomic events. The results reveal that exchange rate fluctuations exert a strong and statistically significant positive effect on GDP, underscoring the central role of currency depreciation in inflating the domestic value of oil revenues. International oil prices also show a positive and statistically significant impact on GDP, confirming Nigeria’s structural dependence on crude oil exports. By contrast, changes in oil prices, while often volatile, were found to be statistically insignificant, suggesting that short-term price fluctuations do not independently determine GDP outcomes. The combined regression model further confirmed that exchange rates and oil prices are the dominant predictors of GDP, with their joint effect statistically significant at the 1% level.The findings highlight Nigeria’s persistent vulnerability to external shocks and macroeconomic instability, as GDP growth remains largely tied to global oil market dynamics and exchange rate movements. The study concludes that without structural diversification and more effective exchange rate management, Nigeria’s economic growth will continue to mirror the cycles of oil booms and busts. It recommends diversification of the production and revenue base, stronger fiscal buffers, transparent exchange rate policies, and improved statistical reporting. The study contributes to knowledge by distinguishing between the level and volatility effects of oil prices on GDP, and by empirically demonstrating the pivotal role of the exchange rate as a transmission mechanism in Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy.
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