POPULATION DYNAMICS IN NIGERIA USING THE LOGISTIC GROWTH MODEL

ABSTRACT This study examines the population dynamics of Nigeria using the logistic growth model as a framework for long-term demographic forecasting. Using official data from the National Population Commission (NPC), the United Nations (UN DESA), and the World Bank, we compared Nigeria's recorded and projected population (2020-2050) with theoretical estimates derived from both the logistic and exponential models. The logistic model incorporated a carrying capacity K=991.15 million people, reflecting an upper bound for Nigeria's population under current demographic and resource conditions. Results show that the exponential model consistently overestimates population growth in the long term, predicting unsustainably high figures (e.g., almost 900 million by 2050), whereas the logistic consistently overestimates population growth in the long term, predicting unsustainably high figures (e.g., almost 900 million by 2050), whereas the logistic model aligns more closely with official projections, indicating a gradual slowing of growth as the population approaches the carrying capacity. By evaluating the models at selected years (2020, 2022, and 2050), we observed the logistic curve's stabilizing effect and the divergence between theoretical and observed trends. This analysis highlights the utility of logistic models for national planning, emphasizing the importance of considering ecological and socio-economic constraints on population growth. The findings provide a quantitative framework for policy makers and demographers to anticipate future challenges related to urbanization, resource distribution, and sustainable development in Nigeria.