THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA.
Abstract
ABSTRACT
This study examines the impact of monetary policy on economic growth in Nigeria,
focusing on key macroeconomic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP),
Inflation Rate (INF), Exchange Rate (EXCH), Interest Rate (INT), and Money Supply
(M2) from 2000 to 2023. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model,
Johansen cointegration test, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the
research investigates both short-term and long-term relationships between monetary
policy instruments and economic growth. The findings reveal that while the short-
term impact of monetary policy variables on GDP growth is insignificant, there is a
long-run equilibrium relationship between them. Specifically, inflation has a negative
long-term effect on economic growth, while interest rates show a positive long-term
influence. Additionally, the money supply demonstrates a negative relationship with
GDP, suggesting that uncontrolled liquidity may hinder sustainable growth. Based on
these results, the study recommends that Nigeria's Central Bank focus on managing
inflation and exchange rate stability, while coordinating monetary policies with fiscal
measures to ensure balanced and sustained economic growth.
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