ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF RAINFALL VARIABILITY ON CROP YIELD IN GIWA LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA, KADUNA STATE, NIGERIA
Abstract
ABSTRACT
The study examines the impact of rainfall parameters on selected grains yield in a tropical setting.
The study design involves the collection and analyses of data on rainfall parameters and maize,
sorghum and millet yield at Giwa LGA in Kaduna State, Nigeria. The methodology adopted is the
use of archival data on rainfall and selected grains yield for 30 years (1991 – 2021), collected from
NiMet station in Nigerian College of Aviation Technology (NCAT), Zaria and Monitoring and
Evaluation Unit (MEU) of Kaduna State Agricultural Development Project (KADADP), Kaduna
state respectively. The data was analyzed using correlation and regression analysis to establish
cause and effect relationship between rainfall parameters and yield of selected grains in the study
area. The relationship between rainfall variable and grains revealed that the effect of length of
rainy season, onset, cessation date and volume of rainfall on maize yield revealed the value of
0.694, 0.979, 0.334 and 0.667 respectively. This indicate that 69%, 97%, 33% and 66% of the
variation in maize yield in Giwa LGA is explained by rainfall parameters. Furthermore, the effect
of length of rainy season, onset, cessation date and volume of rainfall on millet yield revealed the
value of 0.519, 0.989, 0.196 and 0.224 respectively. This indicate that 51%, 98%, 19% and 22%
of the variation in millet yield in Giwa LGA is explained by rainfall parameters. Also, the effect
of length of rainy season, onset, cessation date and volume of rainfall on sorghum yield revealed
the value of 0.833, 0.852, 0.570 and 0.735 respectively. This indicate that 83%, 85%, 57% and
73% of the variation in sorghum yield in Giwa LGA is explained by rainfall parameters. The study
recommends the application of irrigation technology, use of appropriate management practices
that ensured moisture conservation and improved crop species with shorter growing periods/less
moisture consumption as adaptive measures to the changing rainfall pattern within the study area
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