ANALYSIS OF THE PATTERN OF INFANT AND CHILD MORTALITY IN ADAMAWA STATE (A CASE OF STUDY OF SPECIATIST HOSPITAL, YOLA)
Abstract
ABSTRACT
Infant and child mortality remains one of the most critical indicators of nation’s health status, reflecting maternal health, socio-economic conditions, and the effectiveness of healthcare systems. Nigeria, particularly in the northeastern region, continues to experience high mortality rates, with Adamawa State facing additional challenges such as insecurity, poverty, and week health infrastructure. This study analyzes the pattern of infant and child mortality in Adamawa State using institutional data from Specialist Hospital Yola.
Secondary data covering the period 2015-2024 were obtained from the hospital’s medical records. The analysis employed Holt’s Linear Exponential Smoothing method to capture trends and provide forecasts for the years 2025-2029. Result revealed significant fluctuations in infant mortality over the study period, with the highest rate recorded in 2020 (69.9 deaths per 1000 live births) and the lowest in 2021 (32.7 deaths per 1000 live births). Forecasts indicated a gradual decline in the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) from 39.94 in 2025 to 37.70 in 2029, suggesting moderate improvements in child health outcomes. The recommends strengthening healthcare delivery at both rural and urban levels, increasing government funding, improving maternal education and awareness, and sustaining immunization and disease control programs.
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