MODELLING PASSENGER FLOW AND AIRPORT CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN NIGERIA USING SARIMA APPROACH

This study examined passenger flow and airport capacity utilization across Nigeria’s aviation sector, focusing on Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja as an overutilized hub and Muhammadu Buhari International Airport, Maiduguri as an underutilized hub. Motivated by the uneven distribution of air traffic nationwide, the research forecasted passenger demand, assessed the influence of external factors on traffic patterns, and evaluated the utilization levels across different periods. Daily passenger data for 2024 was sourced from Aerodrome Data Records-16 (ADR-16) and analyzed using descriptive statistics, time series decomposition and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modelling. Stationarity was confirmed via the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, while model adequacy was validated through residual diagnostics and performance metrics including MAE, RMSE and MAPE. The analysis showed that Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport, Abuja gets an average of 14,855 passengers daily, with utilization peaking at 88.7% in December reflecting intense demand pressure. Meanwhile, Maiduguri handled 509 passengers per day, with utilization consistently below 30%, underscoring its status as a severely underutilized facility. SARIMA forecasts captured strong weekly seasonal patterns in Abuja (MAPE: 19.45%), while Maiduguri’s irregular traffic produced a higher error rate (MAPE: 25.65%). External events such as holidays, strikes and elections were found to significantly affect passenger volumes. The study concluded that Nigeria’s airport network suffers from structural imbalances in usage. It recommended policy driven interventions including route diversification, improved multimodal connectivity and strategic planning guided by statistical forecasting. These findings offered evidence based solutions for redistributing traffic, enhancing operational efficiency, and fostering balanced airport utilization nationwide.