STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE PREVALENCE OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES IN OYO STATE NIGERIA

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) constitute a major and growing public health challenge in Nigeria, yet sub-national data on their epidemiology remains sparse. This study aimed to statistically analyze the prevalence and trends of CVDs in Oyo State, Nigeria. A retrospective longitudinal design was employed, analyzing 30 years (1992-2021) of secondary data from the University College Hospital, Ibadan. The methodology involved calculating Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR), descriptive statistics, linear regression for trend analysis, and a fixed-effects model to assess gender-based mortality risk. The results revealed a significant increase in CVD incidence over the study period, with a strong positive correlation between time and case load. Despite this rising burden, the overall SMR was 0.109, indicating a lower than expected mortality rate, which suggests improvements in clinical management at the tertiary level. A profound gender disparity was identified: males accounted for over double the cases of females and had a 47% higher odds of mortality. The raw case fatality rate was 10.9%, underscoring the continued severity of CVDs. The study concludes that while the clinical management of CVDs has improved, the escalating incidence, driven by epidemiological transition, demands urgent action. Key recommendations include prioritizing CVD prevention in public health policy, integrating screening into primary healthcare, establishing a national surveillance system, and implementing gender sensitive interventions and public awareness campaigns to curb the epidemic.